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Announcement of Opportunity

INVESTIGATION OF THE RISK FROM
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE OVER NORTHERN EUROPE

Historically, severe weather events have led to substantial economic losses within Northern Europe. A substantial proportion of these losses has been borne by the insurance industry and insurers have a clear interest in the risks from such events in the future.

Previous research has suggested that there may be links (or "teleconnections") between climatic conditions in Northern Europe, the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean.

Proposals are invited to improve the assessment of the risk from extreme weather events in Northern Europe, including consideration of the value of teleconnections in predicting changes in the climate.

The research should assume close collaboration with insurance industry representatives from within the TSUNAMI consortium and should first aim to identify the severe weather events to which property values are vulnerable.

The research should then seek to produce spatial estimates of the probability of occurrence of severe weather events, with varying degrees of severity. Finally, consideration should be given to the vulnerability of property and commercial operations to the predicted severe weather events.

Tenders between £50,000 and £100,000 are invited, with delivery within 24 months of notification of the funding award date.