Temperature trends
Temperature trends
Mean sea level / surface pressure trends
The trends ilustrated in the maps are computed using a standard least-squares method.
The methodology used to calculate the significance levels is based upon:
Santer B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, J.S. Boyle, D. J. Gaffen, J.J. Hnilo, D. Nychka, D.E. Parker and K.E. Taylor. 2000: Statistical significance of trends and trend differences in layer-average temperature time series. Journal of Geophysical Research, 105, 7337-7356.
Briefly, an effective sample size is calculated based on the lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient of the regression residuals, This effective sample size is used for the computation of the standard error and in indexing the critical values of the Student''s t distribution.
The significance level of the trend is given if it is less than 10%, 5% or 1%.
The maps are in PDF format (Adobe Acrobat Reader can be downloaded from here
).
This web page was written to look good in MS Explorer 5.0 using character entity references from HTML 4.0. Apologies if it doesn't quite work for you. Comments should be addressed to Dr Gareth Marshall at gjma@pcmail.nbs.ac.uk.
Return to the main Antarctic monthly mean surface temperature page.